In this tournament format, all it takes to move closer to elimination is one devastating loss. In a game against Afghanistan in which they were under intense duress, Bangladesh produced a brilliant batting performance to transfer the pressure onto their opponents. Afghanistan is now under pressure and requires a Herculean effort with both bat and ball to advance to the Super Four.

It will not be a simple challenge considering Sri Lanka is in excellent form despite lacking several key bowlers. Sri Lanka is presently in first place in the division after dominating Bangladesh and must avoid a crushing loss in order to advance to the Super Four.

Bangladesh is nearly through to the Super Four after their victory against Afghanistan. Even if Afghanistan wins by a large margin and surpasses Bangladesh in terms of NRR, Sri Lanka’s NRR will likely decline below Bangladesh’s, putting pressure on Sri Lanka. This three-way contest is extremely tight, but two of the three teams are the clear favorites to advance.

If Sri Lanka scores 300, Afghanistan will need almost 19 overs to chase it down and surpass Bangladesh’s net run rate. And if Afghanistan bats first and scores 300 with the bat, the margin of defeat must be at least 127 runs. Both of these duties are difficult.

Even though Afghanistan won the first one-day international (ODI), Sri Lanka mounted a strong recovery to thrash their opponents in the next two ODIs to secure the series. Particularly in the final ODI, they completely dominated their opponents with the ball, and Afghanistan would be wary of this.

However, they are concerned about their performance with the ball against Bangladesh. Both Mujeeb ur Rahman and Rashid Khan allowed more than six runs per over. They are confident in their ability to recover against a batting lineup that struggled to chase down a 160-plus target a few days ago, but the issue is how much of a burden they will have to bear to turn their fortunes around.

When: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka on September 5, 2023 at 14:30 local time, 15:00 IST

Where: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore

What to expect: While rain continues to threaten the games in Sri Lanka, there is no such issue in Lahore with the temperatures expected to be warm. Seamers generally make an impact at this venue.