Playoff Thriller Unfolds: RCB’s Late Surge Intensifies Qualification Battle

At the end of the 62nd match in the ongoing IPL 2024, only Kolkata Knight Riders have officially booked a place in the playoffs. With eight more league matches to go, seven teams are still in the hunt for the remaining three playoff spots. Here’s a look at how the teams are currently placed, and the possible qualification scenarios:

Points Table (After Match 62)

KKR

KKR have qualified for the playoffs with 18 points and a healthy net run rate, and with two more matches in hand, they are almost certain to finish in the top two. One more win will guarantee them a place in Qualifier 1 to be played in Ahmedabad on May 21. They will miss out only if they lose both of their matches by a huge margin, and both RR and SRH surpass them on NRR.

RR, SRH, CSK

The last defeat against CSK has left RR in a spot of bother but they are still in a comfortable position to qualify for playoffs with 16 points from 12 games. RR’s qualification will, in fact, be confirmed if DC beat LSG on Tuesday (May 14), as only CSK and SRH can match or better that (other than KKR who are already ahead). If LSG win tomorrow, one win from their remaining two matches will ensure RR a playoff spot, and two wins will confirm a top-two finish (as will one win if they stay ahead of SRH on NRR if they too finish on 18). Even if RR lose both their matches, their elimination is highly unlikely – SRH, CSK and LSG can all reach 16 – but LSG’s NRR of -0.769 is way lower than that of RR (+0.349).

The dominating win against LSG has given SRH a great chance to qualify. If they win both their remaining matches then they will be guaranteed a playoff spot and will be in with a chance for a top-two finish as well, depending on other results featuring KKR and RR. One win out of two will also help them get through, given their superior NRR as compared to some of the other teams in the hunt. However, two defeats could put them in a spot of bother as CSK, RCB and LSG can surpass them.

CSK’s victory over RR has bettered their chances of qualification; they are currently placed third on the table with 7 wins from 13 matches and a net run rate of +0.528. If CSK win their last fixture against RCB, they will be through, given their healthy NRR. In case of a defeat, which will leave them on 14 points, they can miss a place in the top four as KKR, RR, SRH and LSG can finish above them. In another scenario in case of a defeat to RCB, they can still make it through, provided the margin of defeat is low enough to keep them ahead of two SRH, LSG and RCB.

RCB, DC, LSG, GT

RCB are currently placed fifth in the points table after a convincing win over DC at home and they still have a realistic chase to book a place in the top four thanks to their healthy net run rate of 0.387. They take on CSK in their last game which can be a virtual knockout if some of the other results featuring SRH and LSG go their way. In that case, RCB has to beat CSK by 18 runs or more to surpass them on NRR (assuming they score 200 while batting first). If they are set a target of 201, they will have to get there in 18.1 overs or earlier. RCB will be knocked out regardless of their victory margin against CSK if SRH win at least one and LSG wins both their remaining games.

DC’s last night defeat has impacted their NRR significantly which is now well lower than that of CSK and RCB. They still have a slim chance of qualification if some of the other results go in their favour. The best scenario for them to qualify is if they win the last match against LSG and if SRH lose their last two games – both by huge margins – and CSK beat RCB on May 18. DC can get ahead of SRH in case of a 14-point tie if SRH lose their last two matches by a combined margin of 120 runs and DC beat LSG by 96 runs or more (assuming the team batting first scores 200 runs). However, SRH will have an advantage of knowing the exact scenario if it comes down to that, as they play their last two matches after DC are done with their 14.

The defeat against SRH last Wednesday has dented LSG’s chances, and they have 12 points in 12 matches with a net run rate of -0.769 which is the second worst among all the teams after GT. But they still have a chance to qualify with 16 points if they win both their remaining matches against DC and MI, and CSK and SRH stay on 14. If LSG lose one more match (or CSK and SRH both get to 16), they stand eliminated because of their poor NRR.

Gujarat Titans can finish with 14 points with two more wins, but the NRR of -1.063 almost confirms their elimination. Meanwhile, MI and PBKS have both already been eliminated from the playoffs race.